Friday, February 15, 2008

This is an excellent piece on the gradually accelerating defections from the Clinton ranks among the Super Delegates. Most noteworthy: The two most recent defections to the Obama camp are senior members of the Congressional Black Leadership Caucus in the House. Bad news for Hillary indeed! But you know, they can do the math. They know their overwhelmingly black districts voted heavily for Obama. And they don't want to have to come back for the next election cycle being known as the people Who Stopped The First Black President From Taking Office Because They Voted For Hillary At A Log Jammed National Party Convention. That would be a sure ticket to an unemployment line. As it is, it seems to me the Democrats are headed for a bloody show down at the national convention. Neither candidate has a clear hands down advantage, and Hillary would simply have to crush Obama in every single contest from here on out in order to win the nomination. And that won't happen for three reasons: 1) There aren't enough primaries and caucuses left. 2) Delegates are awarded on a proportional basis, which means Hillary can still win a state but Obama might possibly scoop up 40% or so of the vote. 3) The delegate allocation process in many places favors areas of high population concentration and density, which gives an edge to urban centers in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania with large black communities.

In the end, black and white legislators with majority or large minority black districts are going to look over their shoulder and ask themselves what the smart move is for them. Then they'll ask, what is in the best interest of the party and how will what happens now affect the dynamic between the black community and the rest of the democratic party in the future. Conclusion: Backing Hillary could lead to a multi-generational train wreck for the party. Stay tuned. The fun is just beginning.

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